It is a research result, not a guarantee. Bengen (Journal of Financial Planning, October 1994) and the Trinity study (1998) tested an inflation-adjusted withdrawal starting near 4% of the initial portfolio, about 50/50 US stocks and bonds, over about 30 years of US history. A longer early-retirement window is why the calculator also shows 3.3% and 3%. Sequence of returns, not the average return, is what breaks a fixed check.

What is 25 times versus 30 times?

25 times annual spending is a 4% initial withdrawal. On $52,000 that is $1,300,000. Thirty times is $1,560,000, which is 3.33%, not the calculator’s 3.3% button. The 3.3% button is $52,000 divided by 0.033, or $1,575,758. Three percent is $1,733,333. Type your spending in the calculator. These are the defaults, not a forecast.

Do I subtract Social Security from the FIRE number?

Only dollars you will actually receive, and only in the years you receive them. SSA’s estimated average retired-worker benefit payable in January 2026 is $2,071 a month, or $24,852 a year, after the 2.8% COLA. That is not your PIA. If that average check is already in hand and spending is $52,000, the portfolio covers $27,148, which is $678,700 at 4%. Before the check starts, the bridge is still the full spending number.

No. The IRS does not publish a safe withdrawal rate. Rev. Proc. 2025-32 sets 2026 brackets and the standard deduction. IRC section 72(t) adds 10% on many retirement-plan distributions before 59½. Social Security’s 2.8% COLA for 2026 is a raise on a benefit check, not a required inflation raise on a portfolio withdrawal.

What if I retire before 59 and a half?

The 10% additional tax under section 72(t) is the default on IRA and 401(k) distributions before 59½. The rule of 55 can skip it for the plan of the employer you left in or after the year you turn 55. A 72(t) series is the other door, and it locks the payment. Taxable brokerage and Roth contribution basis are different piles. The FIRE number does not waive the penalty.

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Your FIRE number: 25× spending, then the 2026 fine print

Q: What about healthcare before Medicare?

Medicare generally starts at 65. Years before that need a marketplace premium priced at your MAGI, not a friend’s employer plan and not $0 because a blog assumed a spouse’s coverage. A low-tax year can still be a high-MAGI year for the subsidy. Put the premium inside annual spending before you multiply by 25.

Q: Does tax make the withdrawal bigger than spending?

Often yes, if the check is ordinary income. 2026 standard deduction is $16,100 single and $32,200 married filing jointly (Rev. Proc. 2025-32). A single filer with no other income who needs to spend $52,000 from a traditional IRA withdraws about $56,614. Federal tax is about $4,614. The 4% nest egg on that gross check is $1,415,350. The same $52,000 as long-term gain, with no ordinary income, sits in the 0% band (taxable income under $49,450) and can be $0 federal tax. State tax is extra. This is an illustration, not a return.

Q: Should I use 3% or 3.3%?

Use the rate that matches the horizon you will actually live on the portfolio, then stress it. Four percent is the 30-year research starting point. Early FIRE is longer, which is why 3 to 3.5% shows up as the conservative pair. Neither number is a live market forecast. Guardrails — a cash sleeve and a cut after a bad year — live in the sequence-of-returns playbook, not in a second 4% essay.

The poster is annual spending divided by a withdrawal rate. 25× is 4%. On the calculator’s default $52,000, that is $1,300,000. The same spending at the calculator’s 3.3% button is $1,575,758. At 3% it is $1,733,333. Those three lines are arithmetic. They are not a promise that a portfolio will pay you that check for 50 years.

Updated 2026-09-24 · 10 min read · Educational, not tax, Social Security, or retirement advice. Run the FIRE calculator with the spending you will actually write checks for. Guardrails: sequence of returns.

The rate is the inverse of the multiple

Label	Math on $52,000	What it is
4% · 25×	$1,300,000	Bengen (1994) / Trinity (1998) starting rate. About 30 years, ~50/50 US stocks and bonds, inflation-adjusted, historical US sample.
30× exactly	$1,560,000	3.333…%, not the button labeled 3.3%.
3.3% button	$1,575,758	$52,000 ÷ 0.033, rounded to the dollar the way the calculator does.
3% · ~33×	$1,733,333	The longer-horizon pair on the same page. Not a 2026 market call.

Spending has to be the checks: housing, food, insurance, tax you will owe on the withdrawal, and travel you will not cancel. Under-counting is how a 25× slogan fails before sequence risk gets a chance. A paid-off house lowers the check. A mortgage that still exists is part of the check.

Tool default

$52,000 at 4%

Nest egg $1,300,000. Same spend at 3.3% is $1,575,758. At 3% it is $1,733,333. Open the calculator on those inputs. The widget does not add tax, fees, or a crash in year one.

The usual miss

Spending that is not the withdrawal

A traditional IRA dollar is not a brokerage long-term-gain dollar. The section below uses 2026 federal tables only. Your state is extra. Type the gross check, not the lifestyle slogan.

2026 tax changes the gross check

Rev. Proc. 2025-32 (IRS news release IR-2025-103, October 9, 2025): 2026 standard deduction $16,100 single, $32,200 married filing jointly, $24,150 head of household. Ordinary 12% starts over taxable income of $12,400 single / $24,800 joint. The 22% bracket starts over $50,400 / $100,800. Long-term capital gains and qualified dividends at 0% run through taxable income of $49,450 single / $98,900 joint. NIIT (3.8%, IRC §1411) is a separate MAGI test at $200,000 single / $250,000 joint and does not touch this example.

Source of the $52,000 you want to spend	Single, no other income, 2026	4% nest egg on the gross
You withdraw exactly $52,000 from a traditional IRA	Taxable $35,900. Federal tax $4,060. Left to spend $47,940.	$1,300,000 — and you are $2,060 short of the lifestyle.
You need $52,000 after federal tax from that IRA	Withdraw $56,614. Taxable $40,514. Tax $4,614. Net $52,000.	$1,415,350
The $52,000 is long-term gain (basis already recovered), nothing ordinary	Taxable $35,900, under the $49,450 0% ceiling. Federal tax $0.	$1,300,000

Ordinary income fills the brackets first. A pension, a W-2, or a Roth conversion can push the same gain out of 0%. The order of which account you tap is the tax-efficient withdrawals playbook, not a second FIRE formula. State tax is not in the table.

Social Security is a dated check, not a haircut on day one

SSA’s 2026 COLA fact sheet: benefits payable in January 2026 include a 2.8% COLA. Estimated average monthly benefit for all retired workers after that COLA: $2,071 ($24,852 a year). The maximum for someone who earned the taxable maximum and starts in 2026 is $2,969 at 62, $4,152 at full retirement age, and $5,181 at 70 (SSA FAQ). Those maxima are not a planning default. Your statement is.

If you are already receiving the $2,071 average and you still spend $52,000, the portfolio only covers $27,148. At 4% that residual is $678,700. That subtraction is wrong for the years before the check starts. The bridge is still ~$1.3 million, work, or a smaller spend. Do not apply today’s formula to a retirement forty years out and call it a guarantee. Claiming age, the earnings test ($24,480 under full retirement age in 2026, $65,160 in the year you reach it), and couples live on the claiming guide and the PIA calculator. You type the PIA. This page does not scrape a benefit.

Two ages the poster skips

59½. IRC §72(t) generally adds 10% to taxable retirement-plan distributions before then. The rule of 55 is a qualified-plan exception when you separate in or after the year you turn 55. An IRA does not get that exception. A 72(t) series is a locked payment, not a vibe. The FIRE number does not include the penalty unless you put it in spending.

65. Medicare generally starts then. The years before it are often the hole: price an ACA plan at your MAGI. A $0 federal-tax long-term-gain year can still show income that changes the premium. Put that premium in the $52,000 before you multiply. This page does not invent a 2026 marketplace price.

What fails a long retirement is usually a fixed inflation-adjusted check through a crash in the first few years, not the difference between 4 and 3.5 on a spreadsheet that assumed the average return every year. The thin “FIRE withdrawals” wall was that sentence twice. It now refreshes to the 12-step sequence file (cash sleeve, a written cut rule, Social Security as a dated check). Do not build a second one.

Free tool

FIRE number calculator

Spending ÷ your rate, next to 4%, 3.3%, and 3%. Hash + bars. Default $52,000 → $1,300,000 at 4%.

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Sequence of returns

12 steps. The old FIRE-withdrawal URL lands here. Sleeve, 10% cut, do not sell the recovery in year one.

Questions

Is the 4% rule safe?

It is a 30-year historical research result (Bengen 1994, Trinity 1998), not a contract. Longer horizons are why 3.3% and 3% sit next to it. Sequence risk is the failure mode.

What is 25× versus 30×?

25× of $52,000 is $1,300,000 (4%). 30× is $1,560,000 (3.33%). The calculator’s 3.3% button is $1,575,758. 3% is $1,733,333.

Do I subtract Social Security?

Only a check you will receive, in the years you receive it. SSA’s 2026 average retired-worker benefit is $2,071 a month ($24,852). That is not your PIA. Before it starts, do not haircut the bridge.

What about healthcare before Medicare?

Medicare is generally 65. Price the marketplace at your MAGI and put the premium inside spending before you multiply by 25.

Does tax make the withdrawal bigger than spending?

If the $52,000 has to arrive after federal tax from a traditional IRA, a single filer with no other income withdraws about $56,614 (tax about $4,614). The 4% pile on that gross is $1,415,350. The same $52,000 as long-term gain, nothing ordinary, can be $0 federal tax under the 2026 0% band. State tax is extra.

Is 4% an IRS rule?

No. Rev. Proc. 2025-32 is brackets and the standard deduction. Section 72(t) is the 10% early-distribution tax. The 2.8% COLA raises a Social Security check, not your portfolio withdrawal.

What if I retire before 59½?

The 10% additional tax is the default. Rule of 55 is the employer-plan exception. 72(t) locks a series. The FIRE number does not waive either.

Should I use 3% or 3.3%?

Match the horizon, then stress it. Four percent is the 30-year research start. Early FIRE is longer. Guardrails are the sequence playbook, not a second essay.

Keep reading

Educational only. Confirm Rev. Proc. 2025-32, IRC §72(t), and your Social Security statement before you quit. Rates you type into the calculator are yours — this page does not freeze a live market yield. Written by Thomas Sanders.