Playbook · income · stay vs hop

Compare the offer in year-one cash, not the banner

Free primer: how to negotiate a raise. Widget (already hash + chart — do not rebuild it): stay vs hop — raised base + match vs hop base + match − extra commute. After-tax on the extra dollars: 2026 W-2 paycheck. If you already took the stay raise, the capture file is first 90 days, not this one. Paid steps assume the widget ran, and you want vest / health / year-three — not a second copy of the bars.

Do this in order

  1. Run the stay vs hop widget before you open the equity PDF. Raise vs hop is stay = raised base + match, hop = new base + match − extra commute cash. Match is compensation. Vesting, equity, and health premiums are out of that widget on purpose — they live in this file. Type the internal raise you would actually get, not the one you wish they offered. If you have no stay number, the stay column is current base + current match, and the hop has to beat that after commute. Copy the share link so future-you cannot change the inputs after the offer dinner.
  2. Convert the extra gross to extra net. The widget is pre-tax base plus match minus cash commute — “after-tax-ish,” not a W-4. Run paycheck twice (stay gross, hop gross, same 401(k) % for this pass). Traditional 401(k) cuts federal (and usually state) but not FICA. 2026 Social Security wage base is $184,500 (SSA OACT); employee OASDI 6.2% + HI 1.45% = 7.65% on extra gross until that cap; Additional Medicare 0.9% starts at $200,000 of wages (single). Rev. Proc. 2025-32: 22% ordinary starts at taxable $50,400 single / $100,800 MFJ; standard deduction $16,100 / $32,200. Type your own state %. If you cannot name extra net per check, you are ranking banners.
  3. Write both match formulas from the SPDs, not the recruiter slide. “5% match” is not a number until it is 100% of the first 5%, or 50% of the first 6%, or a cap in dollars. You only get it if you actually defer that percent. 2026 elective deferral $24,500, age-50 catch-up $8,000, ages 60–63 $11,250; match sits in the $72,000 §415(c) cap (Notice 2025-67). No true-up → a July start that front-loads the $24,500 can zero later match; a stay job with true-up does not have that hole. Primer: never skip the match.
  4. Vesting is a cash column, not a footnote. Your own deferrals are always yours. Unvested employer match is not. 3-year cliff vs 2–6 year graded: write years-in and the dollar that forfeits if you leave next Friday. A hop that wins the widget by $4k and costs $6k of unvested match is not a win in year one. New-job match on a 3-year cliff is $0 this calendar year for the household budget. If the stay vest is 11 months from today, that is a calendar, not a vibe — wait or take the hop with the forfeiture written down.
  5. Health is 12 × employee premium plus typical patient-share, not the sticker deductible. Pull both SBCs. A $3,000 higher deductible is not a $3,000 cost in a light year and is not $0 either — use last year’s claims or a boring $1,000 typical / $8,000 bad split, the same way the HDHP vs copay tool does. If the hop is an HDHP, the HSA cap is a funding calendar (HSA sequence), not a $4,400 raise. A spouse on the other plan can make one offer’s “family” premium the whole comparison.
  6. Build the commute dollar; do not inherit a round number. Door-to-door hours × 240 workdays, plus parking, tolls, extra miles. IRS optional business mileage is a cost proxy for the car, not a W-2 commuting deduction: 72.5¢/mile Jan–Jun 2026 (Notice 2026-10 / IR-2025-128), 76¢/mile Jul–Dec 2026 (IR-2026-29). Employees generally do not deduct the drive to the office. If the hop offers a qualified transportation fringe, Pub. 15-B (2026) exclusion is $340/month parking and $340/month transit — pre-tax only if payroll actually codes it. Remote 4 days is a different commute, not zero. Put the yearly cash into the widget’s extra-commute box and re-run step 1.
  7. Unvested equity is not salary. RSUs: grant ÷ schedule, 1-year cliff means calendar-year-one vested $0 if the cliff is month 12. At vest they are W-2 ordinary income (withholding is a payroll guess, not your bracket). A 4-year $12k grant is not $3k of this year’s rent. Refresh grants are a rumor until they are a grant letter. ISOs / NSOs / 83(b) / 409A are a different file — do not haircut an RSU as if it were an option, and do not treat a paper 409A value as cash. If you cannot sell on vest (private company), year-one cash from equity is $0 plus a tax bill if it still W-2s.
  8. Signing bonus is net, then the clawback. Supplemental 22% federal is a common withholding, not your marginal rate; add 7.65% FICA (until the $184,500 wage base) and your state %. A $5,000 sign-on that claws back if you leave inside 12 months is a loan with a resignation penalty. PTO is days × (base ÷ 260). Five fewer days at $94,000 is ~$1,808 of paid time, not “unlimited culture.” Relocation for a W-2 is usually after-tax; do not net it against the banner unless you have the gross-up in writing.
  9. Write year-one cash and year-three on the same sheet. Year-one: extra net (step 2) − extra commute − extra premium − extra typical patient-share + signing net − forfeited unvested stay-match. Do not add unvested hop match or unvested RSUs. Year-three: add vested hop match, the cliff RSUs that actually delivered, and a raise cadence you are willing to write (not “they said we grow fast”). The larger headline is usually year-three marketing. If year-one is negative and year-three only wins if you stay 36 months, that is a hold-period, same as a CD.
  10. Raise-in-seat vs hop is the actual decision. If the internal raise already wins on the widget after commute, the hop needs a written non-cash reason: title you cannot get here, remote, already-earned vest you would forfeit anyway, or a commute you can measure. Negotiate the stay number with the raise script before you resign. A competing offer you would not take is not a BATNA. If you stay, stop this file and open capture the raise the week HR confirms — the extra net becomes rent in six weeks if you do not.
  11. Two W-2s, a mid-year start, or a new state: the W-4 is part of the offer. Overlap week: Step 2 on the higher check only — W-4 so April is boring. A July hop that payroll annualizes at the new rate can over-withhold the rest of the year; do not “fix” that with a smaller 4(c) and a surprise. Screenshot onto one sheet: offer letter (base, bonus, start, clawback), SPD match + vest table, equity grant, both SBCs, commute math. The deadline on the letter is a calendar. Recruiter verbal is not a grant.
  12. Hard-stop list: ranking two banners, counting unvested RSUs as year-one salary, counting unvested match as cash, skipping the stay vest table, inheriting a $2,800 commute without miles, treating IRS 72.5¢/76¢ as a 1040 deduction, ignoring a 12-month sign-on clawback, a hop that wins by $4k and costs $6k of forfeited match, electing a general FSA next to an HDHP because the new benefits fair said “max the HSA,” resigning before the stay raise is in writing, and opening a brokerage with the sign-on before the clawback window. If year-one cash is negative and you do not have 12 months of cash-to-close on the new life, you wanted the stay raise, not the title.

One-page decision

Widget first: stay raised-base + match vs hop base + match − commute. Then extra net (FICA + federal + state). Then vest (forfeit vs new cliff). Then 12 × premium + typical patient-share. Then commute from miles and parking, re-run the widget. RSUs after the cliff, sign-on net of tax and clawback, PTO days. Year-one cash and year-three on one sheet. If the stay raise already wins after commute, hop needs a written non-cash reason — or you capture the raise in 90 days. Nobody is required to take the larger headline.

Worked example (educational, not advice): widget defaults — current $82,000, stay raise 6% → $86,920, stay match 4% → $3,477, stay widget $90,397. Hop $94,000, match 5% → $4,700, extra commute $2,800, hop widget $95,900 (wins by $5,503). Extra gross $7,080. 22% federal (Rev. Proc. 2025-32; already in 22%), FICA 7.65% under the $184,500 wage base, example state 5%: extra net $4,627. Extra health premium $1,200 + typical patient-share $500. Sign-on $5,000 net of 22% + 7.65% + 5% → $3,268. Year-one cash vs stay: 4627 − 2800 − 1200 − 500 + 3268 = $3,394 ahead. Stay 3-year match cliff, 24 months in: forfeit 4% × $82,000 × 2 = $6,560. Hop RSU $12,000, 4-year, 1-year cliff: year-one vested $0. Year-one economic: 3394 − 6560 = −$3,166 (hop loses). Five fewer PTO days at $94,000/260 ≈ $1,808 more. Widget said hop; year-one says stay unless you will still be there when the cliff RSUs and new match vest. Type your own state %, premiums, and vest table; $3,166 is not a quote.

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